TMC vs VALE Stock Comparison
Compare TMC and VALE across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between TMC and VALE?
VALE leads the current stock comparison as Vale S.A., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
TMC the metals company inc. vs Vale S.A.
VALE leads
VALE leads by 17 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Risk Resilience, having only recently taken the lead back from TMC. Wall Street currently favors TMC on target upside.
Fragile: 3 of 5 evidence groups support VALE, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
TMC the metals company inc.
Vale S.A.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors VALE over TMC, 56 versus 39 as of Sep 11, 2026. VALE's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and risk resilience. VALE also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors TMC. 3 of 5 covered evidence groups favor VALE today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. VALE lead: Reversed — TMC led by 7 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; VALE now leads by 17.
Compare TMC the metals company inc. and Vale S.A. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare TMC and VALE against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum42 vs 75VALE +33
- Risk Resilience35 vs 50VALE +15
- Quality39 vs 42Even
3 of 5 evidence groups favor VALE. VALE’s edge is concentrated in momentum and risk resilience.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -18
New signals
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum -4
No new signals fired.
VALE's lead widened by 6 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — TMC and VALE both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
VALE (Vale S.A.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and risk resilience.
TMC (TMC the metals company inc.): the counter-case, on analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 99.2% against 32.9%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
VALEVALE on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
VALEVALE on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
EvenThe two are level on Value.
Momentum
VALEVALE on the Momentum factor, by 33 points.
Lower downside
VALEVALE on Risk Resilience, by 15 points.
Analyst upside
TMCTMC on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors VALE, analyst targets favor TMC. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | TMC | VALE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +154.1% | +13.3% | TMC has more room |
| Target dispersion | 0% | +26.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Strong Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 2 | 6 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 5 covered evidence groups favor VALE. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | VALE | 39 vs 56 |
| Fundamentals | Even | EPS growth -180% vs -27.3%; TTM ROE 9.5% vs 5.8% |
| Valuation | Not covered | Not covered |
| Technicals | VALE | Price vs 50-day -5.8% vs 3.6%; vs 200-day -27.8% vs 0.4% |
| Risk Resilience | VALE | Risk Resilience 35 vs 50 |
| Analyst expectations | TMC | Target upside 154.1% vs 13.3% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of TMC and VALE and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 17 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has swung materially session to session. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on VALE.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10VALE lead: Reversed — TMC led by 7 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; VALE now leads by 17.
- Today
- VALE +17
- 39 vs 56
- 7 sessions ago
- VALE +9
- 48 vs 57
- 30 sessions ago
- TMC +7
- 52 vs 45
- 90 sessions ago
- VALE +2
- 44 vs 46
The lead changed hands 4 times in this window, most recently on Aug 6 when TMC moved ahead of VALE.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
0 bullish / 3 bearish / 2 neutral
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (32.93%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (3.56%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
VALE leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -1.87%, AIQ -7 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.33%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1TMC closes the Momentum gap — currently 33 points behind, the largest single contributor to VALE's edge.
- 2TMC's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3VALE's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
Split| Metric | TMC | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 0% | 13.3% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -180% | -27.3% |
| Gross margin | 0% | 34.2% |
| Operating margin | 0% | 26.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 9.5% | 5.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0 | 0.58 |
Performance
VALE leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | TMC | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -12.6% | -2.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -10.3% | 6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -17% | 2.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -37.5% | -0.4% |
| Year to date | -35% | 17.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -23.2% | 46.2% |
Technicals
VALE has the stronger structure| Metric | TMC | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 50.8 | 65.3 |
| ADX (14) | 23 | 16.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | -5.8% | 3.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | -27.8% | 0.4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 99.2% | 32.9% |
Risk
VALE is the more resilient| Metric | TMC | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.22 | 1.13 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.15 | 1.24 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.28 | 1.78 |
| Max drawdown | -67.7% | -23.5% |
| Current drawdown | -62.5% | -14.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 95.6% | 32.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -8.9% | -3.6% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, TMC or VALE?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, VALE is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 56 against TMC's 39. The edge comes from momentum and risk resilience. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is TMC or VALE the better buy right now?
VALE carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 5 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor VALE over TMC?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. VALE leads Momentum by 33 points; VALE leads Risk Resilience by 15 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, TMC or VALE?
Analyst price targets imply +154.1% upside for TMC and +13.3% for VALE, so the Street currently favors TMC. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors VALE. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, TMC or VALE?
Neither name separates on the peer-relative Value factor. The two are level on Value. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, TMC or VALE?
VALE on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, TMC or VALE?
VALE on the Momentum factor, by 33 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, TMC or VALE?
VALE is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. VALE on Risk Resilience, by 15 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is TMC more profitable than VALE?
TMC leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 0% vs 34.2%; operating margin 0% vs 26.1%; ttm roe 9.5% vs 5.8%.
Is VALE's lead over TMC getting stronger or weaker?
VALE lead: Reversed — TMC led by 7 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; VALE now leads by 17. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 4 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-06, when TMC moved ahead of VALE.
What would change the TMC vs VALE verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: TMC closes the Momentum gap — currently 33 points behind, the largest single contributor to VALE's edge; TMC's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; VALE's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 2 bullish and 1 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about TMC and VALE?
TMC: 0 bullish / 3 bearish / 2 neutral. VALE: 2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on TMC is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On VALE it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare TMC and VALE with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.