TX vs VALE Stock Comparison
Compare TX and VALE across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between TX and VALE?
TX leads the current stock comparison as Ternium S.A., with the clearest separation coming from risk resilience and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Ternium S.A. vs Vale S.A.
TX leads
TX leads by 7 AIQ points, primarily on Risk Resilience and Value, but the lead has narrowed from 17 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors VALE on target upside.
Fragile: 4 of 6 evidence groups support TX, its lead is narrowing, and its current signal state is conflicted.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors TX over VALE, 63 versus 56 as of Sep 11, 2026. TX's advantage is driven primarily by stronger risk resilience and value. TX also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors VALE. 4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TX today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. TX lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 17 to 7 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Ternium S.A. and Vale S.A. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare TX and VALE against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Risk Resilience76 vs 50TX +26
- Value67 vs 57TX +10
- Momentum78 vs 75Even
- Quality40 vs 42Even
4 of 6 evidence groups favor TX. TX’s edge is concentrated in risk resilience and value.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum -1
New signals
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
Largest factor move: Momentum -4
No new signals fired.
TX's lead widened by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — TX and VALE both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
TX (Ternium S.A.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by risk resilience and value.
VALE (Vale S.A.): the counter-case, on fundamentals, analyst expectations — but at materially higher volatility, 32.9% against 18.7%.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
TXTX on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
TXTX on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
TXTX on the peer-relative Value factor, by 10 points.
Momentum
EvenThe two are level on Momentum.
Lower downside
TXTX on Risk Resilience, by 26 points.
Analyst upside
VALEVALE on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors TX, analyst targets favor VALE. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | TX | VALE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | -7.6% | +13.3% | VALE has more room |
| Target dispersion | +54.2% | +26.1% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Hold | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 6 | 6 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
4 of 6 covered evidence groups favor TX. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | TX | 63 vs 56 |
| Fundamentals | VALEon balance | revenue growth 10.3% vs 13.3%; EPS growth 63.6% vs -27.3%; TTM ROE 5.8% vs 5.8%; gross margin 17.4% vs 34.2%; operating margin 7.5% vs 26.1% — VALE takes 3 of 4 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | TX | Value 67 vs 57 |
| Technicals | TX | Price vs 50-day 14.3% vs 3.6%; vs 200-day 29.9% vs 0.4% |
| Risk Resilience | TX | Risk Resilience 76 vs 50 |
| Analyst expectations | VALE | Target upside -7.6% vs 13.3% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of TX and VALE and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is moderate at 7 points.
- The leader's advantage has been narrowing. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on TX.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10TX lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 17 to 7 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- TX +7
- 63 vs 56
- 7 sessions ago
- TX +6
- 63 vs 57
- 30 sessions ago
- TX +17
- 62 vs 45
- 90 sessions ago
- TX +4
- 50 vs 46
The lead has not changed hands in this window.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
4 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (14.20%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- RSI Overbought — bearish, momentum, short horizon
2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (3.56%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
TX leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +0.5%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.33%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1VALE closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 26 points behind, the largest single contributor to TX's edge.
- 2VALE's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3TX's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4The narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 10 points over 30 sessions, and a further 7-point move would eliminate TX's advantage entirely.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
VALE leads on balance| Metric | TX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 10.3% | 13.3% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 63.6% | -27.3% |
| Gross margin | 17.4% | 34.2% |
| Operating margin | 7.5% | 26.1% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.24 | 0.58 |
Performance
TX leads 5 of 6 windows| Metric | TX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 1.3% | -2.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 5% | 6% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | 22% | 2.3% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | 44.3% | -0.4% |
| Year to date | 50.9% | 17.3% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | 67.9% | 46.2% |
Technicals
TX has the stronger structure| Metric | TX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 73.5 | 65.3 |
| ADX (14) | 48.2 | 16.3 |
| Price vs 50-day | 14.3% | 3.6% |
| Price vs 200-day | 29.9% | 0.4% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 18.7% | 32.9% |
Risk
TX is the more resilient| Metric | TX | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.07 | 1.13 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.75 | 1.24 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.96 | 1.78 |
| Max drawdown | -18.9% | -23.5% |
| Current drawdown | -0.9% | -14.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 31.5% | 32.9% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -3% | -3.6% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, TX or VALE?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, TX is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 63 against VALE's 56. The edge comes from risk resilience and value. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is TX or VALE the better buy right now?
TX carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 4 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the leader's advantage has been narrowing. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor TX over VALE?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. TX leads Risk Resilience by 26 points; TX leads Value by 10 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, TX or VALE?
Analyst price targets imply -7.6% upside for TX and +13.3% for VALE, so the Street currently favors VALE. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors TX. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, TX or VALE?
TX is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. TX on the peer-relative Value factor, by 10 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, TX or VALE?
TX on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, TX or VALE?
The two are level on Momentum. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, TX or VALE?
TX is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. TX on Risk Resilience, by 26 points. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is TX more profitable than VALE?
VALE leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 17.4% vs 34.2%; operating margin 7.5% vs 26.1%; ttm roe 5.8% vs 5.8%.
Is TX's lead over VALE getting stronger or weaker?
TX lead: Weakening — the AIQ differential moved from 17 to 7 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has not changed hands in that window.
What would change the TX vs VALE verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: VALE closes the Risk Resilience gap — currently 26 points behind, the largest single contributor to TX's edge; VALE's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; TX's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 4 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; the narrowing continues — the lead has already given back 10 points over 30 sessions, and a further 7-point move would eliminate TX's advantage entirely.
What do the current signals say about TX and VALE?
TX: 4 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. VALE: 2 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on TX is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon). On VALE it is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon).
Compare TX and VALE with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.