UPST vs HOOD Stock Comparison
UPST currently leads HOOD in this stock comparison, with AIQ scores of 37 vs 33. The clearest difference is momentum, while HOOD has the stronger quality profile.
What is the main difference between UPST and HOOD?
UPST leads the current stock comparison as Upstart Holdings, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Upstart Holdings, Inc. vs Robinhood Markets, Inc.
UPST leads
UPST leads by 4 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Value, having only recently taken the lead back from HOOD.
Fragile: 3 of 6 evidence groups support UPST, the lead recently changed hands, and its current signal state is conflicted.
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors UPST over HOOD, 37 versus 33 as of Oct 31, 2026. UPST's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and value, while HOOD holds the stronger quality profile. UPST also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor UPST today, and the comparison is rated Fragile on stability: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. UPST lead: Reversed — HOOD led by 4 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; UPST now leads by 4.
Compare Upstart Holdings, Inc. and Robinhood Markets, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price return from daily closes; distributions are not included.
Price return comparison
Growth of $10,000, price only
Split-adjusted closes only. Distributions are excluded, which understates the return of any fund or stock that pays them.
Compare UPST and HOOD against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum42 vs 22UPST +20
- Quality38 vs 53HOOD +15
- Value36 vs 24UPST +12
- Risk Resilience30 vs 28Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor UPST. UPST’s edge is concentrated in momentum and value; HOOD keeps a meaningful quality edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-10-28, compared against the prior scored session 2026-10-27.
Largest factor move: Momentum +2, not enough on its own to move the overall score.
No signal started or stopped since the prior session; its 5 active signals are unchanged.
Largest factor move: Momentum -7
New signals
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
UPST's lead widened by 2 AIQ points in the latest session.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — UPST and HOOD both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
UPST (Upstart Holdings, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and value.
HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.): the counter-case, on quality, fundamentals, technicals.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
UPSTUPST on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
HOODHOOD on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
UPSTUPST on the peer-relative Value factor, by 12 points.
Momentum
UPSTUPST on the Momentum factor, by 20 points.
Lower downside
HOODHOOD carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
UPSTUPST on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
Where the systematic read and the analyst consensus line up — and where they do not.
| Measure | UPST | HOOD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +69.1% | +51.9% | UPST has more room |
| Target dispersion | +59.1% | +58.9% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 8 | 20 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor UPST. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | UPST | 37 vs 33 |
| Fundamentals | HOODon balance | revenue growth -16.5% vs -49.9%; EPS growth 3.5% vs 59%; TTM ROE 7.9% vs 22.7%; gross margin 74.4% vs 78.7%; operating margin 4.2% vs 30.9% — HOOD takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | UPST | Value 36 vs 24 |
| Technicals | HOOD | Price vs 50-day -9.9% vs -21.9%; vs 200-day -19.8% vs -1.6% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 30 vs 28 |
| Analyst expectations | UPST | Target upside 69.1% vs 51.9% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of UPST and HOOD and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion is sensitive to small changes. Treat the lead as provisional and watch the flip conditions below.
- The AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has already changed hands inside the comparison window. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader is throwing conflicting signals. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on UPST.
How the comparison changed
120 daily snapshots · Jun 29 – Oct 28UPST lead: Reversed — HOOD led by 4 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; UPST now leads by 4.
- Today
- UPST +4
- 37 vs 33
- 7 sessions ago
- UPST +3
- 37 vs 34
- 30 sessions ago
- HOOD +4
- 37 vs 41
- 90 sessions ago
- HOOD +10
- 38 vs 48
The lead changed hands 4 times in this window, most recently on Oct 14 when UPST moved ahead of HOOD.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
Only UPST
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (17.77%)
- Downtrend Structure Active — bearish, trend, long horizon
- MACD Bullish Crossover — bullish, momentum, short horizon
1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted
Only HOOD
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (17.08%)
- Keltner Channel Breakdown — bearish, volatility, short horizon
- MACD Bearish Crossover — bearish, momentum, short horizon
Both carry 1 more signal that do not separate them: ATR Expansion - Breakout Mode.
UPST leads the comparison while carrying a conflicted signal state, which is one reason the stability rating is not higher.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price -7.33%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -7.21%, AIQ -2 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1HOOD closes the Momentum gap — currently 20 points behind, the largest single contributor to UPST's edge.
- 2HOOD's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it.
- 3UPST's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
HOOD leads on balance| Metric | UPST | HOOD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -16.5% | -49.9% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 3.5% | 59% |
| Gross margin | 74.4% | 78.7% |
| Operating margin | 4.2% | 30.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 7.9% | 22.7% |
| Debt to equity | 2.54 | 2.92 |
Performance
HOOD leads 4 of 6 windows| Metric | UPST | HOOD |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 2% | -10.3% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | 5% | -18.7% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -10.7% | 5.6% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -20.8% | 28.4% |
| Year to date | -44.8% | -19.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -54.2% | -31.7% |
Technicals
HOOD has the stronger structure| Metric | UPST | HOOD |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 49.7 | 31.7 |
| ADX (14) | 10.7 | 23 |
| Price vs 50-day | -9.9% | -21.9% |
| Price vs 200-day | -19.8% | -1.6% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 51.9% | 49.2% |
Risk
Split| Metric | UPST | HOOD |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.92 | 3.17 |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.89 | -0.36 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.42 | -0.63 |
| Max drawdown | -55.1% | -55.7% |
| Current drawdown | -52.4% | -37.8% |
| Annualized volatility | 64.5% | 71.5% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -7.1% | -7.2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, UPST or HOOD?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, UPST is the stronger of the two as of Oct 31, 2026, scoring 37 against HOOD's 33. The edge comes from momentum and value. HOOD is not without a case — it holds the better quality profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is UPST or HOOD the better buy right now?
UPST carries the stronger systematic profile as of Oct 31, 2026, and the comparison is rated Fragile — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Fragile rating means the conclusion is sensitive: the AIQ gap is narrow at 4 points. Treat the lead as provisional.
Why does the AIQ Score favor UPST over HOOD?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. UPST leads Momentum by 20 points; HOOD leads Quality by 15 points; UPST leads Value by 12 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, UPST or HOOD?
Analyst price targets imply +69.1% upside for UPST and +51.9% for HOOD, so the Street currently favors UPST. The model and the Street agree here, which is a broader base of evidence than either alone. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, UPST or HOOD?
UPST is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. UPST on the peer-relative Value factor, by 12 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, UPST or HOOD?
HOOD on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, UPST or HOOD?
UPST on the Momentum factor, by 20 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, UPST or HOOD?
HOOD is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. HOOD carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is UPST more profitable than HOOD?
HOOD leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 74.4% vs 78.7%; operating margin 4.2% vs 30.9%; ttm roe 7.9% vs 22.7%.
Is UPST's lead over HOOD getting stronger or weaker?
UPST lead: Reversed — HOOD led by 4 AIQ points 30 sessions ago; UPST now leads by 4. This is measured from 120 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-06-29 and 2026-10-28. The lead has changed hands 4 times in that window, most recently on 2026-10-14, when UPST moved ahead of HOOD.
What would change the UPST vs HOOD verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: HOOD closes the Momentum gap — currently 20 points behind, the largest single contributor to UPST's edge; HOOD's Keltner Channel Breakdown resolves — a bearish volatility rule currently active against it; UPST's conflicting signal state resolves bearish — it currently carries 1 bullish and 2 bearish rules at once; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about UPST and HOOD?
UPST: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. HOOD: 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral, conflicted. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on UPST is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On HOOD it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare UPST and HOOD with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.