UPST vs HOOD Stock Comparison
Compare UPST and HOOD across AIQ Score, fundamentals, valuation, momentum, risk, analyst expectations and current market evidence.
What is the main difference between UPST and HOOD?
HOOD leads the current stock comparison as Robinhood Markets, Inc., with the clearest separation coming from momentum and the broader AIQ evidence mix.
AlgovestIQ AIQ Comparison
Upstart Holdings, Inc. vs Robinhood Markets, Inc.
HOOD leads
HOOD leads by 13 AIQ points, primarily on Momentum and Quality, and the lead has widened from 1 points over 30 sessions. Wall Street currently favors UPST on target upside.
Stable: 3 of 6 evidence groups support HOOD, its lead is widening, and its signal state is cleanly positive.
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
The Algovestiq AIQ Score currently favors HOOD over UPST, 46 versus 33 as of Sep 11, 2026. HOOD's advantage is driven primarily by stronger momentum and quality, while UPST holds the stronger value profile. HOOD also shows the stronger technical structure relative to its 50-day moving average, though analyst target upside currently favors UPST. 3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HOOD today, and the comparison is rated Stable on stability: only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. HOOD lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 13 points over 30 sessions.
Compare Upstart Holdings, Inc. and Robinhood Markets, Inc. across the Algovestiq AIQ Score, valuation, quality, momentum, risk, technicals and analyst expectations.
Performance over time
Price-return comparison using available daily close history.
Total return comparison
Growth of $10,000
Based on available close-price history. Distribution reinvestment is not added unless already reflected in the source series.
Compare UPST and HOOD against another ticker
Open a multi-ticker workspace without changing this focused pair page.
AIQ Factor Divergence
Where the two separate, on the four dimensions behind the AIQ Score. Bars read outward from a shared zero: further from the centre is a wider gap.
- Momentum25 vs 76HOOD +51
- Quality38 vs 53HOOD +15
- Value37 vs 24UPST +13
- Risk Resilience27 vs 27Even
3 of 6 evidence groups favor HOOD. HOOD’s edge is concentrated in momentum and quality; UPST keeps a meaningful value edge.
What changed since the last close
Latest scored session 2026-09-10, compared against the prior scored session 2026-09-09.
Largest factor move: Momentum +1
No new signals fired.
Largest factor move: Momentum -3
No new signals fired.
HOOD's lead narrowed by 1 AIQ points in the latest snapshot.
Deeper signal detail for each name lives on its own signals page — UPST and HOOD both carry a full feed there.
The central trade-off
HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.): the stronger current systematic profile, led by momentum and quality.
UPST (Upstart Holdings, Inc.): the counter-case, on value, valuation, analyst expectations.
The AIQ Score and Wall Street therefore point in different directions on this pair.
Which one fits your objective
The same two names rank differently depending on what you are optimizing for. All six reads are shown at once — none of them is hidden behind a toggle.
Balanced
HOODHOOD on the overall AIQ Score, which weights Quality and Value most heavily.
Growth
HOODHOOD on combined revenue and EPS growth.
Value
UPSTUPST on the peer-relative Value factor, by 13 points.
Momentum
HOODHOOD on the Momentum factor, by 51 points.
Lower downside
UPSTUPST carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility.
Analyst upside
UPSTUPST on implied upside to the consensus price target.
AIQ vs Wall Street
The model and the Street disagree here: AIQ favors HOOD, analyst targets favor UPST. That disagreement is the most useful thing on this page.
| Measure | UPST | HOOD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied upside to target | +57.6% | +1.8% | UPST has more room |
| Target dispersion | +52.1% | +68% | Lower is tighter analyst agreement |
| Consensus | Buy | Buy | Context, not a primary driver |
| Analysts covering | 7 | 15 | Higher coverage generally improves confidence |
The two are measuring different things. The AIQ Score reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; analyst targets price forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something already priced in — it is worth resolving before acting on either.
Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions. Dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
AIQ Agreement Matrix
3 of 6 covered evidence groups favor HOOD. A wide gap backed by one group is a weaker case than a narrow gap backed by five.
| Evidence group | Favors | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| AIQ Score | HOOD | 33 vs 46 |
| Fundamentals | HOODon balance | revenue growth -16.5% vs -49.9%; EPS growth 3.5% vs 59%; TTM ROE 7.9% vs 22.7%; gross margin 74.4% vs 78.7%; operating margin 4.2% vs 30.9% — HOOD takes 4 of 5 decided legs, not all of them |
| Valuation | UPST | Value 37 vs 24 |
| Technicals | HOOD | Price vs 50-day -14% vs 8.9%; vs 200-day -25.9% vs 19.1% |
| Risk Resilience | Even | Risk Resilience 27 vs 27 |
| Analyst expectations | UPST | Target upside 57.6% vs 1.8% |
✓ agrees with the overall verdict · ✕ points the other way. Groups marked “not covered” lack data on one or both of UPST and HOOD and are excluded from the count.
AIQ Decision Stability
The conclusion rests on a wide gap and broad agreement. It is unlikely to turn on a single session.
- The AIQ gap is wide at 13 points. (supports the conclusion holding)
- Only 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
- The leader's advantage has been widening. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The lead has been steady session to session. (supports the conclusion holding)
- The leader's signal state is cleanly positive. (supports the conclusion holding)
- Analyst targets on the leader are widely dispersed. (argues the conclusion is provisional)
Stability combines the score gap, how broadly the evidence agrees, how steady the lead has been across daily snapshots, the current signal state on both names, and analyst dispersion on HOOD.
How the comparison changed
119 daily snapshots · May 4 – Sep 10HOOD lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 13 points over 30 sessions.
- Today
- HOOD +13
- 33 vs 46
- 7 sessions ago
- HOOD +12
- 36 vs 48
- 30 sessions ago
- HOOD +1
- 40 vs 41
- 90 sessions ago
- HOOD +5
- 41 vs 46
The lead changed hands 6 times in this window, most recently on Aug 14 when UPST moved ahead of HOOD.
AIQ Signal Divergence
Only the signals that bear on the head-to-head. A conflicted name is carrying bullish and bearish rules at the same time — the technical evidence is not pointing one way.
1 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted
- Death Cross Active — bearish, trend, long horizon (13.89%)
- Bollinger Band Squeeze — neutral, volatility, short horizon
- BB Lower Band Breach — bullish, volatility, short horizon
4 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral
- Golden Cross Active — bullish, trend, long horizon (8.64%)
- EMA Ribbon Expansion Bullish — bullish, trend, medium horizon
- Uptrend Structure Active — bullish, trend, long horizon
UPST is conflicted, so the timing case there is weaker than the score alone suggests.
Price vs model alignment
Whether the latest session's price move confirms what the model did over the same session, or contradicts it.
Neither the price nor the AIQ Score moved enough in the latest session to confirm or contradict the other (price +1.95%, AIQ 0 points).
Price and the AIQ Score both moved down over the latest session (price -0.67%, AIQ -1 points).
What would flip this result
A state, not a forecast. These are the specific, observable changes that would reverse the verdict — not a price prediction.
- 1UPST closes the Momentum gap — currently 51 points behind, the largest single contributor to HOOD's edge.
- 2UPST's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it.
- 3HOOD's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict.
- 4A regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
The full evidence
Every number behind the verdict. The leader is called above each group so you are not left to solve it from the table.
Fundamentals
HOOD leads on balance| Metric | UPST | HOOD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -16.5% | -49.9% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 3.5% | 59% |
| Gross margin | 74.4% | 78.7% |
| Operating margin | 4.2% | 30.9% |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 7.9% | 22.7% |
| Debt to equity | 2.54 | 2.92 |
Performance
HOOD leads 6 of 6 windows| Metric | UPST | HOOD |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week (5 sessions) | -10.9% | 5.9% |
| 1 month (20 sessions) | -13.7% | 19.4% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -17.2% | 31.2% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -8.6% | 44% |
| Year to date | -42.1% | 0.2% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -63.2% | -3.4% |
Technicals
HOOD has the stronger structure| Metric | UPST | HOOD |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 31.7 | 62.9 |
| ADX (14) | 14.1 | 22.5 |
| Price vs 50-day | -14% | 8.9% |
| Price vs 200-day | -25.9% | 19.1% |
| Volatility (1M, annualized) | 55.3% | 95.2% |
Risk
Split| Metric | UPST | HOOD |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.92 | 3.15 |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.25 | 0.24 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.99 | 0.41 |
| Max drawdown | -64.9% | -57.3% |
| Current drawdown | -63.6% | -25.7% |
| Annualized volatility | 66.4% | 72.2% |
| Value at risk (95%) | -7.3% | -7.2% |
Straight answers
Each answer is regenerated from the current snapshot, not written once and left to age.
Which is better, UPST or HOOD?
On the Algovestiq AIQ Score, HOOD is the stronger of the two as of Sep 11, 2026, scoring 46 against UPST's 33. The edge comes from momentum and quality. UPST is not without a case — it holds the better value profile, which matters more if that is the objective you are optimizing for. This is a systematic score, not a recommendation: it ranks the two on the same evidence, it does not know your holding period or tax position.
Is UPST or HOOD the better buy right now?
HOOD carries the stronger systematic profile as of Sep 11, 2026, and the comparison is rated Stable — 3 of 6 covered evidence groups agree. A Stable rating means the gap is wide and the evidence is broad, so the conclusion is unlikely to turn on a single session.
Why does the AIQ Score favor HOOD over UPST?
The composite weights Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk Resilience. HOOD leads Momentum by 51 points; HOOD leads Quality by 15 points; UPST leads Value by 13 points. Where the two split, the factor with the larger weight carries the result.
Which has more analyst upside, UPST or HOOD?
Analyst price targets imply +57.6% upside for UPST and +1.8% for HOOD, so the Street currently favors UPST. That points the opposite way to the AIQ Score, which favors HOOD. The two are measuring different things: the model reads current fundamentals, valuation, trend and risk; the Street is pricing forward expectations. A divergence of this kind is either a contrarian opportunity or a sign the model is missing something the analysts have already priced — it is the single most useful row on this page to investigate. Analyst targets are expectations, not predictions, and dispersion matters as much as the midpoint.
Which is better value, UPST or HOOD?
UPST is the better-valued of the two on the peer-relative Value factor. UPST on the peer-relative Value factor, by 13 points. The Value factor reads valuation relative to sector peers and to the company's own fundamental quality, so it is not the same as simply having the lower multiple.
Which has stronger growth, UPST or HOOD?
HOOD on combined revenue and EPS growth. Growth here is measured on reported revenue and earnings, not on forward estimates — it describes what the businesses have delivered, not what the Street expects next.
Which has stronger momentum, UPST or HOOD?
HOOD on the Momentum factor, by 51 points. Momentum is one of the four weighted factors in the AIQ composite. It has documented persistence over three- to twelve-month horizons, which makes it a timing input rather than a reason to hold something indefinitely.
Which is riskier, UPST or HOOD?
UPST is the more resilient of the two, so the other name carries the higher downside risk. UPST carries the lower 1-month annualized volatility. Risk Resilience is a weighted factor in the composite; position sizing usually responds to it more usefully than the buy/avoid decision does.
Is UPST more profitable than HOOD?
HOOD leads on the comparable margin measures — gross margin 74.4% vs 78.7%; operating margin 4.2% vs 30.9%; ttm roe 7.9% vs 22.7%.
Is HOOD's lead over UPST getting stronger or weaker?
HOOD lead: Strengthening — the AIQ differential moved from 1 to 13 points over 30 sessions. This is measured from 119 daily comparison snapshots between 2026-05-04 and 2026-09-10. The lead has changed hands 6 times in that window, most recently on 2026-08-14, when UPST moved ahead of HOOD.
What would change the UPST vs HOOD verdict?
The result is a state, not a forecast, so it changes when the underlying evidence changes. Concretely: UPST closes the Momentum gap — currently 51 points behind, the largest single contributor to HOOD's edge; UPST's Death Cross Active resolves — a bearish trend rule currently active against it; HOOD's Golden Cross Active breaks down — it is the strongest rule currently supporting the verdict; a regime shift changes factor weighting — Quality and Value carry the heaviest weights in the composite, so a rotation toward either would move the result most.
What do the current signals say about UPST and HOOD?
UPST: 1 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, conflicted. HOOD: 4 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral. A conflicted state means bullish and bearish rules are active on the same name at once — the technical evidence is not pointing one way, and a decision taken on it carries more timing risk. The most decision-relevant rule on UPST is Death Cross Active (bearish, long horizon). On HOOD it is Golden Cross Active (bullish, long horizon).
Compare UPST and HOOD with others
Continue your research
This page answers which of the two. These answer the questions on either side of it.
How this comparison is scored
The Algovestiq AIQ Score composites four factors — Quality, Value, Momentum and Risk, each carrying a fixed weight. Sentiment is reported separately as SentimentPulse and is not folded into the composite. Scores refresh every trading day, and this page regenerates from the latest snapshot rather than being written once.
The verdict names a leader, states how broadly six independent evidence groups agree, and rates how durable that conclusion is given the score gap, its recent trajectory and the current signal state on both names.
How to use side-by-side comparison →This comparison is informational and educational, not investment advice. AIQ scores update daily; re-check after earnings, guidance or macro data that materially changes either name’s factor profile.